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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-11

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
280337bfee1224dfb9d71996d80c52bcc478e492e2b2e87e962a588c0a5ac827

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-11 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 29.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing significant challenges including a deadly heatwave, wildfires, and ransomware attacks, which are straining its resources and infrastructure. However, European leaders are finding common ground on ways to sharpen the region's competitive edge and address energy challenges, indicating some level of cooperation and resilience.

evidence 280337bfee12…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
58.0
okUnstable

Europe faces compounding structural challenges including geopolitical uncertainty, energy transition delays, climate-driven disasters (deadly heatwaves and wildfires), and cybersecurity vulnerabilities, creating systemic stress across multiple domains. However, evidence shows active policy coordination and investment efforts to address competitiveness and renewable energy, preventing immediate critical instability despite the acknowledged severity of underlying problems.

evidence 280337bfee12…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
55.0
okUnstable

Multiple compounding stressors—including a deadly heatwave, escalating wildfire risks, economic and energy policy disputes, and ransomware threats—are straining European stability, as reflected in warnings from climate scientists and security experts. Yet the region retains functioning institutions and cooperative leadership, preventing a slide into severe or critical chaos on this day.

evidence 280337bfee12…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
45.0
okElevated

Europe is experiencing heightened environmental and infrastructural stress due to a deadly summer heatwave and recent major ransomware attacks targeting Ireland. However, regional stability remains intact as European leaders actively collaborate on economic competitiveness and institutions conduct proactive cybersecurity drills.

evidence 280337bfee12…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
31.0
okElevated

The evidence points to compounding but non-violent stressors: a deadly 2026 heatwave, wildfires with a rising death toll, energy/electrification policy failures, trade friction with China, and ransomware threats ahead of Ireland's EU Presidency. Institutions remain functional and leaders are actively coordinating on competitiveness, so the picture is one of chronic strain rather than acute instability.

evidence 280337bfee12…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.