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Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-11

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
ef2d2b6aa44f030dd314f18f30ad29e89813177c4ec7423152e27f99caac66ae

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-11 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 33.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
58.0
okUnstable

Shallow evidence highlights looming oil price volatility and energy supply disruptions stemming from Middle East tensions, which could spur inflation and economic strain across sub-Saharan Africa. Concurrent social stressors such as xenophobia and youth economic uncertainty add pressure, though regional stabilizing factors like Dangote's refinery provide some mitigation.

evidence ef2d2b6aa44f…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing elevated tensions due to the potential for oil price increases caused by Middle East conflicts and the impact of global events on local economies. However, the presence of refinery projects and discussions on future economic development suggest that the region is not in a state of complete instability, thus warranting an elevated rather than unstable score.

evidence ef2d2b6aa44f…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

Sub-Saharan Africa faces emerging economic pressures from anticipated global oil price volatility (potentially breaking the $80-100 range by early 2027), xenophobic tensions, and resource constraints like water scarcity for AI infrastructure, though these are medium-term concerns rather than immediate crises. However, some stabilizing factors exist including regional refinery development (Dangote) that could reduce energy import vulnerability and ongoing institutional engagement (UN warnings, business leadership transitions) suggesting adaptive capacity in the region's economic structures.

evidence ef2d2b6aa44f…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
29.0
okElevated

The day's evidence contains no reports of armed conflict, mass casualties, coups, or political breakdown in sub-Saharan Africa, centering instead on energy market commentary, refinery economics, and opinion pieces on intra-African xenophobia and youth employment. Background stressors — exposure to oil price shocks from Middle East tensions, import fuel dependence in East Africa, and structural economic and integration failures — justify a modestly elevated rather than calm reading.

evidence ef2d2b6aa44f…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
25.0
okStable

Sub-Saharan Africa demonstrates economic resilience as local infrastructure, such as Dangote's refineries, helps shield the region from global oil shocks. While structural challenges like xenophobia and youth unemployment persist, the absence of acute conflicts and steady corporate developments indicate a generally stable environment.

evidence ef2d2b6aa44f…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.