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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-07-11

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
d53e19f00f6931d155454e74f29d7431f9f17af224afe5e1c887918f82fddcd2

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-07-11 was in the prompt.

08

Aeroplan 2026

Earn Aeroplan miles with your everyday purchases and redeem them for travel, upgrades, and exclusive benefits with Aeroplan partners.

milesopedia.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 25.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

The evidence highlights accelerating climate change impacts and specific cyber threats to the FIFA World Cup, which the US is co-hosting, indicating elevated risk and disruption potential. However, no immediate catastrophic events are reported, so the chaos score remains moderate.

evidence d53e19f00f69…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

The evidence provided focuses primarily on climate science, technological advances in heat pump efficiency, and cybersecurity threats at sporting events, with no direct indicators of political instability, civil unrest, or governance crises within the US. While climate scientists express concern about accelerating warming trends, this represents a long-term systemic challenge rather than acute geopolitical instability on the specific date of July 11, 2026 in the United States proper.

evidence d53e19f00f69…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
16.0
okStable

The evidence for the US on this date is dominated by generic climate science explainers, NASA instrumentation news, and consumer/travel content, with no indication of domestic unrest, conflict, or institutional breakdown. The only mildly elevating items are an FBI warning about World Cup-related cyber threats and DDoS surges, plus alarming but non-acute climate acceleration commentary, which together justify only a slight bump above baseline calm.

evidence d53e19f00f69…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
15.0
okStable

The provided evidence indicates a generally stable environment in the United States, with the most notable domestic concern being routine cyber threats surrounding the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, domestic activity is dominated by standard scientific advancements and climate research, showing no signs of geopolitical or internal instability.

evidence d53e19f00f69…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
10.0
okStable

The provided evidence primarily focuses on climate-related topics, technological advancements, and scientific research, with no indication of immediate conflict, social unrest, or catastrophic events in the US region on the specified date. The overall tone of the headlines suggests a sense of awareness and discussion around climate change and technological progress, but does not point to any significant instability or chaos in the region.

evidence d53e19f00f69…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.