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Evidence inspector

Asia-Pacific · 2026-07-12

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
94ebd2b24ab14868c65ef4298e6e371e28995f2f8e261a8f399f6e7f1f2b5cbd

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Asia-Pacific on 2026-07-12 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 18.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing various challenges including disaster vulnerability, geopolitical tensions between major powers, and severe food insecurity in certain areas, which all contribute to a heightened sense of instability. However, the presence of diplomatic efforts, economic development initiatives, and strategic partnerships also indicate that the situation, while serious, has not yet escalated to the point of complete chaos or annihilation.

evidence 94ebd2b24ab1…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
55.0
okUnstable

The Asia-Pacific region faces heightened instability from geopolitical rivalries and global energy security threats, including the Strait of Hormuz closure and China-US regional reshaping. While no direct APAC conflict is reported, maritime and economic vulnerabilities justify an unstable rating.

evidence 94ebd2b24ab1…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
45.0
okElevated

Intra-regional evidence is largely non-kinetic — Modi's Indo-Pacific diplomacy, Malaysian hydrogen and Bangladeshi nuclear projects, and BOJ growth-forecast revisions all point to functioning states and economies rather than conflict. The elevated score reflects an acute external shock: a reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran missile exchanges threatens the energy lifelines of Asia's major importers, compounded by chronic disaster vulnerability and unresolved maritime security frictions in the Indo-Pacific.

evidence 94ebd2b24ab1…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
45.0
okElevated

Regional stability in the Asia-Pacific is largely supported by positive economic developments, including Japan's growth forecasts and new energy initiatives in Bangladesh and Malaysia. However, escalating US-Iran military conflicts and the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz introduce significant external risks to the region's vital maritime trade and energy security.

evidence 94ebd2b24ab1…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

The APAC region faces multiple concurrent stressors including escalating US-Iran military exchanges affecting regional security, natural disaster vulnerability affecting nine of the top 15 most vulnerable countries, and geopolitical competition as major powers reshape Indo-Pacific influence. However, evidence also shows stabilizing factors such as economic growth forecasts, green energy investments, and diplomatic partnership-building that partially offset these tensions, preventing a higher severity classification on this date with shallow evidence depth.

evidence 94ebd2b24ab1…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.