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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-12

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
7d6d7669edad16641f5b987b262347867019d4dd433f9f242376180bd3102639

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-12 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 18.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

The evidence shows EU economic activity proceeding normally with trade dynamics, energy transitions, and tourism contributing positively to regional stability. While trade tensions with China and energy dependency on Russia present underlying concerns, they remain manageable policy issues rather than acute destabilizing crises, and the focus on climate cooperation and renewable energy expansion indicates constructive engagement on shared challenges.

evidence 7d6d7669edad…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
20.0
okStable

The evidence is dominated by routine EU policy, energy transition, tourism economics and legislative agenda items, with no indication of violence, unrest, or institutional breakdown. Mild friction points—prospective EU/German protectionism against Chinese EVs and record Russian Yamal LNG purchases ahead of an import ban—signal trade and energy-security strain but remain within normal policy contestation.

evidence 7d6d7669edad…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
20.0
okStable

The evidence for the EU on this date reflects routine economic, energy, and political activity with no immediate crises or violent conflicts. Minor trade tensions and continued Russian gas imports are notable but do not indicate systemic instability.

evidence 7d6d7669edad…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
15.0
okStable

The European Union exhibits high stability, characterized by routine legislative processes, robust tourism revenues, and ongoing energy transition efforts. While impending bans on Russian gas and potential protectionist measures against Chinese vehicles present minor economic friction, there are no indicators of significant geopolitical or internal crises.

evidence 7d6d7669edad…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
10.0
okStable

The region is experiencing economic cooperation and growth, with China's car shipments to the EU surging and the EU purchasing a record amount of gas from Russia's flagship plant, indicating a stable trade environment. However, the consideration of protectionist measures and the need for deeper climate cooperation highlight some underlying tensions, but these do not currently pose a significant threat to regional stability.

evidence 7d6d7669edad…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.