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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-12

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
ec06afb63fa053669f93d3efef031de428d94587f12d9d1b2c58a9f5111436ed

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-12 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 33.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
75.0
okSevere

While economic developments in the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan demonstrate pockets of regional resilience, active U.S.-Iran hostilities and ongoing Israeli military campaigns drive severe geopolitical instability. The compounding effects of an ongoing war involving Iran and the rising risk of a broader Middle East conflict significantly elevate the threat of regional chaos and global economic shocks.

evidence ec06afb63fa0…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
68.0
okSevere

Evidence points to renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and ongoing Israeli military campaigns, with spillover into energy and food price inflation that analysts expect to persist for years, indicating active interstate conflict with wider escalation risk. The counterweight of routine economic and financial normalcy in Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf suggests the disruption is not yet region-wide or state-collapsing, keeping the score below critical.

evidence ec06afb63fa0…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
65.0
okUnstable

Renewed Gulf hostilities, Israel's military campaigns, and the ongoing Iran war are driving elevated regional uncertainty and risks of wider conflict, though no immediate catastrophic event is reported. Economic news is mixed, with some positive developments like Egypt's cashback program and UAE investor growth, but these are overshadowed by geopolitical tensions and potential food price shocks.

evidence ec06afb63fa0…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing elevated uncertainty due to renewed Gulf hostilities and the potential for a wider Middle East conflict, which could impact energy and food prices. However, the introduction of new economic initiatives, such as loyalty programs and business formation accelerations, suggests that some stability and growth are still present in the region.

evidence ec06afb63fa0…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

The MENA region shows mixed signals with concerning geopolitical tensions—renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, Israel's military campaigns, and warnings of wider Middle East conflict—offset by economic resilience indicators including financial innovation, energy management achievements, and strong business formation in the UAE. However, the underlying risks of regional conflict escalation, combined with global food price pressures from climate factors, create elevated instability despite surface-level economic activity continuing normally in several countries.

evidence ec06afb63fa0…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.