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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-07-12

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
9dc310d473ccbf8940f37a8c461338f231faddd9c9c1b1b4527aa0a0897878ac

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 9

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-07-12 was in the prompt.

07

Michael Soland Obituary - Sugar Land, TX

Celebrate the life of Michael Soland, leave a kind word or memory and get funeral service information care of The Settegast-Kopf Company@Sugar Creek.

dignitymemorial.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 9 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 20.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
40.0
okUnstable

The US faces multiple simultaneous climate-related stresses, including a major heat wave affecting 44 million people and heightened monsoon and hurricane risks, which could disrupt communities and infrastructure. While these are natural events rather than direct conflict, their scale warrants an elevated instability assessment, especially with potential global food price shocks adding economic pressure.

evidence 9dc310d473cc…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
35.0
okElevated

The United States faces moderate environmental and economic pressures, driven by a severe heat wave affecting millions and looming inflation from global food price shocks. Despite these compounding stressors and background geopolitical tensions, domestic institutions remain secure with no signs of civil unrest or systemic disruption.

evidence 9dc310d473cc…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okElevated

The US faces multiple concurrent environmental stressors including a significant heat wave affecting 44 million Americans, active hurricane formation in the Eastern Pacific, monsoon risks in the Southwest, and broader climate pressures from a potential 'super' El Niño that could impact food prices through 2028. However, these are primarily natural disasters and economic pressures rather than indicators of political instability, civil unrest, or systemic governance failure, keeping the score in the elevated but not severe range.

evidence 9dc310d473cc…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
21.0
okElevated

The evidence is dominated by weather and climate hazards — a record-threatening heat wave affecting 44 million Americans, monsoon flash flooding risk in the Southwest, and an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season — alongside inflation pressure from an El Niño food price shock and a referenced Iran war. There are no indications of domestic political violence, unrest, or institutional breakdown, so the picture is one of manageable environmental and economic strain rather than systemic instability.

evidence 9dc310d473cc…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The US is experiencing a heat wave that could break records, and there are warnings of potential flash flooding and strong winds with the arrival of the monsoon season, indicating some level of instability. However, the economic news, such as Argan's record revenue and the boost from K-pop's export boom, suggests that the overall situation is not critical, thus warranting an elevated but not severe chaos score.

evidence 9dc310d473cc…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.